Good point about tariffs. I am unconvinced about the war. Foreign policy seldom moves the needle. While I disapprove of the war, it had zero impact on my vote. I disapprove of our involvement in Ukraine too and Democrats and Neocons cheerlead for that. While we have no disclosed fatalities in Ukraine, the number in Iran is 12 last I saw. Hardly an Iraq or Afghanistan level much less Vietnam. Gas prices do move the needle. I am angry about $5 but that doesn't make me support the party that wants $10. Perhaps the connection is the constant happy patter coming from the White House about both wars with no movement. I am old enough to remember the "credibility gap" that ruined LBJ. There is much less trust today than then so this is likely to have an outsized effect. Early indications are that Republican turnout collapsed. Is this anger or the natural effect of increasing Republican dependency on less engaged voters.
Across all voters, 66% said tariffs hurt the national economy vs. 21% who said it helped. It was 64% vs. 14% for the local economy. If we restrict to men, where the D/R party split is almost exactly 50/50, it's 61% hurt, 25% helped for the national economy and 59% to 18% for the local economy.
A tough week for the “new” right and DonOrenomics. It’s no surprise Oren seeks to hide behind aggregate national stats to show their taco tariffs should bear no blame. Like most establishment elites, I suspect he doesn’t venture much to the ag and manufacturing states that have a vastly different opinion. The polls on the state of the economy, and taco tariffs, couldn’t be more clear. But this was more than just a rejection of the economic policy of the “new” right, though it was surely that.
Oren is correct that corruption also played a major role, and we’ve only just begun uncovering the extent of Don’s mind-numbing graft. And yes, the “new” right’s Middle East war was a major culprit, especially given the incompetence displayed. More broadly though, this was a rejection of the governing philosophy of the movement. It was a rejection of the bullying, the lying, the taunting, the vulgarity, the rank racism, the incompetence, the indecency, the thuggery.
The Kansas Senate race is a perfect example, a state that hasn’t elected a D senator since 1932, and voted for Don by 16 points just two years ago. Yes, Kansans were livid with the tariff’s impact on the ag economy, diesel and fertilizer prices, and Don’s corruption. And yes, Adam Hamilton addressed those issues. But Hamilton, a well known pastor, needed more than that to convince voters to support him. His campaign was more focused on civility, decency, honesty, character. He spoke movingly of loving one’s neighbor. Meanwhile, JD parachuted in to ape Don, and hurled the predictable slop at him. Look up his disgusting comments. He didn’t advance a positive argument in support of “new” right policies, instead, it was all about gratuitous personal insults.
People are sick of it. This is not the America they want to live in. They spoke plainly on Tuesday. It was inspiring, and it gives us a chance to build a better politics. And boy, did brown people send a message to ICE.
Methinks gas prices are the cherry on top of a generalized angst over the cost of stuff (housing, healthcare, cars, steaks, ...). The math is not working for younger folks who followed the rules, have some student debt, and wind up under-employed and can't pay the rent without roomates, or start a family. The math is not working for older folks, maybe with a small business in their home, relying on the ACA health insurance exchanges and having to pay annual premiums of $35,000+ for two people, and in addition having to pay out $8,000 in co-pays, deductibles, etc. before meeting the out-of-pocket limit. The examples are endless.
GDP goes up, productivity goes up, earnings go up, stock market line goes up. Great, but how come that does not translate into regular workers being able to purchase a home and support a family on a single income, which was the norm not so long ago when per capita wealth was supposedly so much lower ???
Love this substack and look forward to your continued investigation of these puzzling questions.
Good point about tariffs. I am unconvinced about the war. Foreign policy seldom moves the needle. While I disapprove of the war, it had zero impact on my vote. I disapprove of our involvement in Ukraine too and Democrats and Neocons cheerlead for that. While we have no disclosed fatalities in Ukraine, the number in Iran is 12 last I saw. Hardly an Iraq or Afghanistan level much less Vietnam. Gas prices do move the needle. I am angry about $5 but that doesn't make me support the party that wants $10. Perhaps the connection is the constant happy patter coming from the White House about both wars with no movement. I am old enough to remember the "credibility gap" that ruined LBJ. There is much less trust today than then so this is likely to have an outsized effect. Early indications are that Republican turnout collapsed. Is this anger or the natural effect of increasing Republican dependency on less engaged voters.
Across all voters, 66% said tariffs hurt the national economy vs. 21% who said it helped. It was 64% vs. 14% for the local economy. If we restrict to men, where the D/R party split is almost exactly 50/50, it's 61% hurt, 25% helped for the national economy and 59% to 18% for the local economy.
This is a "purely partisan result" to you ?!?
A tough week for the “new” right and DonOrenomics. It’s no surprise Oren seeks to hide behind aggregate national stats to show their taco tariffs should bear no blame. Like most establishment elites, I suspect he doesn’t venture much to the ag and manufacturing states that have a vastly different opinion. The polls on the state of the economy, and taco tariffs, couldn’t be more clear. But this was more than just a rejection of the economic policy of the “new” right, though it was surely that.
Oren is correct that corruption also played a major role, and we’ve only just begun uncovering the extent of Don’s mind-numbing graft. And yes, the “new” right’s Middle East war was a major culprit, especially given the incompetence displayed. More broadly though, this was a rejection of the governing philosophy of the movement. It was a rejection of the bullying, the lying, the taunting, the vulgarity, the rank racism, the incompetence, the indecency, the thuggery.
The Kansas Senate race is a perfect example, a state that hasn’t elected a D senator since 1932, and voted for Don by 16 points just two years ago. Yes, Kansans were livid with the tariff’s impact on the ag economy, diesel and fertilizer prices, and Don’s corruption. And yes, Adam Hamilton addressed those issues. But Hamilton, a well known pastor, needed more than that to convince voters to support him. His campaign was more focused on civility, decency, honesty, character. He spoke movingly of loving one’s neighbor. Meanwhile, JD parachuted in to ape Don, and hurled the predictable slop at him. Look up his disgusting comments. He didn’t advance a positive argument in support of “new” right policies, instead, it was all about gratuitous personal insults.
People are sick of it. This is not the America they want to live in. They spoke plainly on Tuesday. It was inspiring, and it gives us a chance to build a better politics. And boy, did brown people send a message to ICE.
Good luck America.
Methinks gas prices are the cherry on top of a generalized angst over the cost of stuff (housing, healthcare, cars, steaks, ...). The math is not working for younger folks who followed the rules, have some student debt, and wind up under-employed and can't pay the rent without roomates, or start a family. The math is not working for older folks, maybe with a small business in their home, relying on the ACA health insurance exchanges and having to pay annual premiums of $35,000+ for two people, and in addition having to pay out $8,000 in co-pays, deductibles, etc. before meeting the out-of-pocket limit. The examples are endless.
GDP goes up, productivity goes up, earnings go up, stock market line goes up. Great, but how come that does not translate into regular workers being able to purchase a home and support a family on a single income, which was the norm not so long ago when per capita wealth was supposedly so much lower ???
Love this substack and look forward to your continued investigation of these puzzling questions.