33 Comments
User's avatar
Ronda Ross's avatar

Rarely mentioned is the economic insanity. It is estimated Biden and states spent 1/2 trillion dollars on migrant care in 4 years. Trump will spend 1/4 trillion on deportations, with no guarantee the next Dem President will not immediately issue an invitation to return. Texas alone spends more than $100 million dollars, monthly, on unpaid migrant healthcare bills.

Many migrants were misinformed by NGOs on the ground. They were told US tax payers would provide any needed subsidies, as long as they were employed. They were misled about the likelihood of asylum, and did not understand the US high cost of living. More than 1/2 currently reside in a household enrolled in US welfare programs. Many of those benefits are ending. It would be wonderful if we could afford to subsidize everyone in perpetuity. We cannot. We are $40 trillion in debt.

Deportations cost $14K each. It would be far smarter to take a page from Scandinavia and increase the self deportation bonus from $2500 to $10K, per adult, with a scheduled departure, that removes the threat of ICE apprehension and detention. Many new arrivals lacking economically self sustaining incomes, might wish to return home if they had enough seed money to build a home or start a business. $10K, or $20K per couple, would go far in low cost nations, and still save US tax payers $4K each, and future welfare and healthcare costs. Allow those who leave, to reapply thru normal Immigration, after 5 years.

The payments, coming at the right time, as El Salvador is safe and booming and Venezuela is on the precipice of an oil and gas Renaissance, could also spur regional development.

ugckjgcgcg's avatar

10K is way too high. That would be a draw for illegal immigration if they get a 10K bonus. a free plane ticket and $2500 is more than enough to convince those that are willing to go back.

Tosc's avatar

You might be correct, I honestly don't know, but I am curious as to whose estimates you are using that claims Biden spent a 1/2 trillion dollars in migrant care in 4 years and what specific programs are you referring too? And I assume that by migrant care you are referring to money spent on people here illegally and not on people who were brought here through a legally established process (e.g., the refugee resettlement program).

Gene Frenkle's avatar

Ultimately the deficit is all that matters…and by every metric the deficit will be worse in 2026 than under Biden’s second year when Republicans couldn’t obstruct his agenda.

Richard's avatar

Aiding an illegal alien is a Federal crime and that is exactly what public officials in sanctuary jurisdictions are doing, not to mention assorted NGOs. How about some arrests there.

Karl's avatar

Hmm, that doesn't seem very Christian. Perhaps we should likewise arrest the people in Springfield aiding their Haitian neighbors by delivering food to the homes they're afraid to leave. The same Haitians Don and JD told us were eating pets, though JD ultimately admitted his lie.

Isn't it interesting to compare the moral leadership of the "new" right/MAGA with that of Pope Leo? It's gratifying to again have an American on the world stage that we can be proud of.

Politically Abandoned's avatar

Another point you left off your list of benefits is housing costs. Every deportation likely frees up a rental property. Assume there are 50k families living in Los Angeles illegally. Deporting all of them would be like building 50k apartments in the city. It is not a huge increase in housing but, in a city like LA, every apartment counts.

Mark Krikorian's avatar

We have an article on this coming out in an academic journal, hopefully before the end of the year.

Politically Abandoned's avatar

Which journal? I will look out for it.

Mark Krikorian's avatar

Cityscape. We'll flack it when it's published.

Tosc's avatar

A lot of these families are mixed status. It is not the case that because you deport the head of the household who is here illegally of 50k families, all the family members are going to leave too. Some might, depending on the country of origin, but a lot will stay, particularly if any children are citizens.

Karl's avatar

It's telling that Tom Homan, the guy caught on video accepting a $50,000 cash bribe in a Cava bag is who Mark holds up as the administration's hero on immigration. Although as corruption goes, ole Tom's a piker compared to the Trump family. Tom's supposed accomplishment is having "learned" from the murders of innocent fellow citizens by armed federal agents. Hence, his tactic is to continue the performative cruelty, but keep it below the radar, hoping Americans turn away. Interestingly, they're not turning away. Don is now underwater even on immigration, long his strongest issue.

It's galling for establishment elites like Mark to slough the performative cruelty off as "sob stories", or "tropes". Life is good in the ivory tower I guess, one never has to run into "those" people. I'm guessing Mark hasn't been to Springfield to witness the pet eating fellow humans JD told us to be very afraid of... JD's admitted lying, his intentional dehumanization of Haitians, tells you all you need to know. As does the administration immediately labeling the citizens they murdered "domestic terrorists". Dehumanization of minorities is a common tactic in authoritarian regimes. Ya gotta have scapegoats to blame all the problems on, it's politics 101.

There is a way to conduct legal deportations without the cruelty. Barack Hussein Obama deported more "illegals" than Don has. But he didn't deploy masked, tactically garbed, sloppily trained thugs into our neighborhoods to do so. And he focused on the criminals Don once promised to focus on. Not Don, Tom, and Stephen, they want the cruelty, they like it.

Alas, corrupt Tom isn't the hero in this story. Fellow Americans are. The ones coming to the aid of their neighbors who are being terrorized. These Americans fill Cava bags with food, not cash, and deliver it to neighbors too terrified to leave their home.

And, why exactly do these armed federal agents patrolling our streets wear masks? Real cops don't. Real members of the military don't. Other federal agents don't. The point is obvious, isn't it?

Shame on them.

Joshua's avatar

Oh please. Don't act like the social/political environment is nearly the same as it was during Obama's term. Nobody tried to assassinate him multiple times. Nobody was obstructing his agenda. Media weren't fomenting fears of fascism. People weren't doxing ICE officers trying to do their job.

Karl's avatar

Ah I see. That’s why they sent a swat team accompanied by a video crew to take down the much-feared Sandwich Man-the weenie guy in shorts who threw the sub at the frightened federal agent:). After the dude even offered to give himself up. Those mustard stains can be really stubborn gosh darn it...

No wonder they had to plug Pretti ten times, starting in the back, while he lay defenseless on the ground. And then label him a domestic terrorist without evidence. Seems, um, logical?

The masks are pretty beta, don't you think? Or is it just the made for TV spectacle they're after? Apparently our military wore masks in Fallujah, but they were battling sandstorms and the fear of chemical weapons in addition to heavily armed opponents. But these timid oafs have to wear masks while they jerk moms outta school pickup lines cuz they're afraid of doxxing? Real cops seem to do far more dangerous things without being so terrified. Jeepers Josh, they even put their names on their uniforms.

My former party used to preach about the dangers of federal agents roaming our streets, even using this fear in defense of the second amendment-we gotta arm ourselves to prepare for when the rogue feds come for us! Now you defend the agents when they actually arrive? So yeah I agree with you, times have indeed changed...

Maybe the next prez will send a few of these half-trained, frightened poltroons to your hood, karma is a beautiful thing.

Ken Kovar's avatar

We need a balance the laxity of the Biden administration and the cruelty of of the current one 😎

American Sheep's avatar

specifically, what is this "cruelty" you speak of?

Gene Frenkle's avatar

Illegal immigration in a strong job market is almost impossible to stop as it got worse in 2019 over two years into Trump’s term as the multifamily construction industry started to boom. If employers can’t fill jobs the economy will suffer and lower income wages grew faster as more illegals entered the country under Biden. So the bad wage growth year had more to do with Putin’s energy shock than competition with illegals because in 2023 we had more illegals and wage growth strengthened.

Engineer Guy's avatar

There are many grey areas around the sloppy immigration practices during Biden and even before. It is a different matter, though, to revoke the TPS status of the Haitain immigrants who as a group followed the law and integrated into many communities, especially in Florida. See this Substack from the financial professional David Kotok regarding the massive impact in Florida https://substack.com/home/post/p-217609549.

Also note that meatpackers and other companies that knowlingly employed high percentages of quasi-legal workers. Now many areas are suffering from less production, higher prices and political blow back even in deep red Texas. To quote the famous conservative philosopher "There are no solutions. There are only (economic and political) tradeoffs!!

ban nock's avatar

meatpacking was once a solid middle class job, it could be again along with lots of helpful automation and robots.

Epaminondas's avatar

One of the most eye-opening quotes about illegal immigration that I've read was from a meatpacker. He said that his union has never had the impact that ICE had on his wages. After an ICE raid on his meatpacking plant, his wages all of a sudden went up.

The argument that we need illegal immigration because certain industries can't survive without a constant supply of illegal labor is ridiculous at face value. The irony is that many of the same people who claim they want to tax the rich seem happy to subsidize them with cheap labor and suppress the wages of lower income Americans.

SubstaqueJacque's avatar

Please also read Nick Reding's _Methland_. Open borders are not a liberal dream but a capitalist demand....

Poebel's avatar

Here’s a hack sense-check on the numbers to get to about 35 million illegals: k12 enrollment, and World Cup tv ratings on Fox vs Telemundo / Univision.

The latter averaged about 4m per game while Fox peaked at 24m for a US match, while averaging 5m per game.

I’ll assert average Spanish tv viewers (let’s assume 100% illegal aliens) are at least a 2x more interested fan base than the highest English language broadcast (boosted by non fans who were just there for the big event).

That makes the 5 million average the equivalent of 2.5, normalized for interest level.

2.5m vs 24 million on the English broadcast = let’s call it 1/10 the number. So the illegal Spanish speaking population is about 30-35 million.

Then add all the others, and we’re talking 35-40 million illegals in the US >> 2x the assertion in the post.

Elsewhere we see about 15% of K12 students speak Spanish at home. I’ll generously say 1/3 of those are somehow not associated with illegal alien parents. Assuming similar birth rates, that leaves you with 10% of the population is Spanish speaking illegal aliens or their anchor babies. Again, about 30-35 million people

Total SWAGs of course, but what other data points are there “hidden” in readily available data?

Regardless, I don’t believe 15 million is anywhere near the real total of illegals. Count their anchor babies and it’s much more.

Karl's avatar

Don’t forget to count the folks who y’all say practice “chain migration”. People like Melania Trump, who MAGA believes snuck her parents in. Oddly, Don campaigned on limiting her “illegitimate” tactic. Then again, JD argues that his wife (ironically a beneficiary of the dreaded birthright citizenship that the “new” right opposes) is less of an American than I am, because my family has been here longer. I disagree, she’s absolutely as legitimate as I am, even though she’s brown:) So are Melania’s folks. After all, we live in America. If you’re into homogeneity, you’re in the wrong country.

Don & JD are just old-fashioned, craven politicians who use the immigration issue to achieve political power. Their ilk have a long, sad, sordid history. We will outlast their hypocrisy and their bigotry. There was a time my German ancestors were likewise despised, as were Italians, Poles, the Irish, the Greeks, we’ve all had our turn in the barrel.

Poebel's avatar

Which fails to address the question of ILLEGAL immigration - which was the point of my post.

But while we’re here, is it reasonable to pause immigration when we are at the highest percentage of non citizens in American history? Were past pauses legitimate? If not, why not? Does any country belong to its citizens, or not? If not, why not?

Karl's avatar

Your post was a "total SWAG", remember? It was made up. But it's interesting you disagree with administration policy and MAGA doctrine, since you claim to support birthright citizenship and chain migration. You likewise oppose JD's public comments on "heritage Americans", where he claims I'm more American than his wife. Why is administration policy wrong? Or, do you only support their policy when it applies to brown people?

"Illegals" can be deported without the pathetic performative cruelty. We merely need to follow the rule of law and treat our fellow humans as humans. That shouldn't be too much to ask from a civilized society.

Don’s problem is that he lied again. He claimed he would focus on the "worst of the worst". He isn't. It's why his approval on immigration issues has plummeted. Funny thing, most Americans actually like their neighbors.

But I'm still fascinated by your support of birthright citizenship and chain migration, that surprised me...

Sincinnatus's avatar

Enforcement should also be concentrated in places where local police and governments support ICE in their efforts. Let the illegal immigrants flee to places like Minnesota, Illinois, New York, and California. It will look good on them for having to shoulder a higher crime and financial burden in the names of "compassion" and "social justice."

Karl's avatar

Data has long shown that illegal immigrants commit crimes at a substantially lower rate than native born Americans. Of course this doesn't keep Don from his pathetic scare tactics. Since it's election time, expect "caravans" to soon be menacing us. Don's whoppers are pretty stale, it's time for a new act.

Sincinnatus's avatar

Which pro-immigration, virtue signalling data is that? How could that make any sense? They’ve already broken American immigration law by entering the country illegally (or overstaying their visas). Do you really believe that their breaking of laws would begin and end there? To whom are they being compared to? Native criminal gangs operating drug, stolen vehicle, and prostitution rings?

Karl's avatar

It’s not secret data. It’s available from multiple non-partisan sources, including data from Don’s own government. Use that google thingy and check it out. But I’ll warn you, it doesn’t comport with Don and JD’s political rhetoric. They just use the issue to scare voters as they seek political power. They’re not the first politicians to do so, though their pet eating lie was a unique approach...

It’s really not that confusing. Immigrants of today are no different than those of yesterday. My great-grandparents did it, people in your family likely did as well. Don’s mom, his paternal grandparents, two of his three wives, JD’s in-laws, they’re all immigrants. They bet everything to come here in search of freedom and an opportunity to improve life for their families. It wouldn’t make sense to risk it all by committing crimes.

When in doubt, remember our Declaration of Independence. “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights…”, you know the rest, right?

Tosc's avatar

"the majority of households headed by illegal aliens use at least one major welfare program, meaning that shrinking the number of such households saves taxpayers money."

This quote makes it sound as though those here illegally are the ones directly benefitting from some form of welfare program, but those benefitting are US citizen children or other family member who is a citizen. As such, they have as much right to take advantage of any welfare program as does a US citizen whose family lineage stretches back to the Mayflower.

Honing in a bit... "shrinking the number of such households saves taxpayers money." Let's imagine that the father is in the US illegally and he has a LPR wife and 2 citizen children who are receiving welfare benefits. The father is detained and deported. The wife and, more specifically, the 2 children will continue to receive said benefits because it is their right to receive them (specifically the children). Thus, there is no savings to taxpayers. In fact, depending on the program the benefits could imaginably increase.

Epaminondas's avatar

If Trump wasn't such a blowhard, this was the approach he should have had DHS take in the first place. The provocative approach was politically stupid, dangerous, and unnecessary. At least Homan seems competent.

The politically and economically smart approach would have been to suppress illegal immigration, reform legal immigration to favor skills (like a pts based system), and increase the amount of legal immigration based on that new system. However, this administration seems incapable of any strategic thinking on immigration beyond stopping illegal immigration.

Lisa Robinow's avatar

Wow, I don’t know this writer, but to talk about cold blooded murder in that way….just wow.